Satellite images from last year (left) and earlier this month (right) give an indication of the extent of this year's Pakistan Floods. Terrible though they are, are they just a taste of things to come?

Really, you’d have to be living in a complete news vacuum to have missed the awful disaster which this year’s monsoon floods have caused in Pakistan; The UN has now declared that the scale of the crisis is greater than the combined effects of the Haiti earthquake (Jan ‘10), the Kashmir earthquake (Oct ‘05) & the Asian tsunami (Dec ‘04) and has left over 14,000,000 without food or shelter and at risk of falling victim to the host of diseases which commonly occur in the aftermath of major flooding.
One bright note is that this disaster has seen an unprecedented response from the public, with donations actually increasing as the crisis entered it’s second, then third week; very different from the usual pattern seen in these kinds of cases, where “donor fatigue” tends to kick in after the first week irregardless of how well the effects of the disaster are being dealt with at that stage.
However, for all that the response, both in the UK and internationally, has been amazingly generous so far there is still much work for the aid agencies to do, and many, many flood victims who still need the help of the international community if they’re to have any hope of returning to a normal way of life any time in the foreseeable future!
Unfortunately there are many despicable scammers in this world, and in particular on the internet, who’ll take any chance to profit from the misery of others, so if you’re planning on making a donation it’s best to go through the DEC, or one of their well known, reputable members such as Oxfam who, like most of the major UK charities, now have a page dedicated to the Pakistan Flood appeal.

Anyway, that was all a bit of an aside, an incredibly important aside, but a tangent none the less.
The real question I wanted to ask in this blog post was whether these floods, described as a “once in a century” event, are another sign that Climate Change is indeed a real and pressing problem which should concern the whole global community?

I understand the principle that climate is a long term pattern, and that it can’t judged by single isolated events, no matter how catastrophic, but it seems to me that we’ve been getting more and more of these “once in century” type of weather events over the past decade or so, and I truly wonder how much longer the climate change deniers will be able to keep their heads in the sand and continue to refute that there is a shift occuring in the planet’s weather patterns?
I can accept that there’s still a lot of debate to be had over the extent of anthropogenic climate change, and, in turn, how much humanity can do to mitigate the global climate change, but surely we’re now getting to a stage where denying the existance of a pattern of climate change is a thoroughly asinine position, and one which is only likely to be held by either the woefully gullible or those who are motivated by profound self-interest.

Of course it does vary from company to company and while some are charging little more than a tenner a week others have cranked their car seat hire charge up to nearly £70, almost as much as it costs to hire a car in the first place!
The piece also claims that, not surprisingly, prices vary largely from location to location, with the research pointing to some prices at Majorca’s Palma airport being the highest, while it found the cheapest prices at Nice’s Cote d’Azur airport in France.

Obviously, as with any purchasing decision, the wisest course is to remember the caveat emptor principle, and always do your research thoroughly so you can ensure that you get the car hire deal which best suites your means, and your needs! Apart from anything else it looks as if taking the time to look before you book could save you up to £60 a week, which while not an earth shattering amount is still extra holiday spending money you could have in your pocket!

Wrong sort of red shirts, apparently this type don't need to steal vans, what with living in space and all.

The news piece is actually about Thailand’s United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) movement, who are known as red shirts. It would seem that things are quite tense over there at the moment, with recent clashes between UDD protestors and soldiers at rallies held by the movement.
This obviously begs the question of why UDD members would be hassling reporters, generally, if you’re trying to be a popular movement you’d think it might be wise not to antagonise the media too much.
Actually though, that is exactly the source of some UDD members’ anger, claims that major news stations are being biased in their reporting of the UDD’s activities & heavily favouring the Thai govt’s position.

Anyway things boiled over at a UDD protest on Saturday and the media were asked to leave, but some of the protestors followed the media, and forced at least one crew to abandon their van.
However it seems that no-one was too badly hurt, and calmer heads soon prevailed amongst the UDD, with one of the movement’s leaders asking the media to continue covering UDD events, & urging UDD members to let the media get on with their jobs in peace.

So, sadly, there’s no point running to the Thai version of the Exchange and Mart to look for high tech bargains in the Used Vans section.

I first caught news of the Haiti Earthquake late on Tuesday night while catching some headlines on the BBC before going to bed. Even at those early stages it seemed clear that the damage caused by it, and it’s aftershocks, was going to be immense, but over the last couple of days, as more and more news has filtered out of the impoverished Caribbean nation, the true scale of the devastation has started to become clear. It beggars belief.

The quake itself measured 7.0 on the Richter Scale, and as such is classified as a “Major” earthquake, while even the aftershocks measured 5.5. and 5.9 on the scale, making them significant earthquakes in their own right. To put things a little more in perspective, a magnitude 7 earthquake is the equivalent of a 32 megaton nuke, 1000 times more powerful than the Nagasaki atomic bomb. In addition, the quake was relatively shallow occurring only 10km below the surface. Shallow quakes are less likely to trigger tsunamis, but also tend to cause more damage in their immediate area, as we’re seeing in Haiti at the moment.
Even in a developed nation, with well constructed structures, a magnitude 7 earthquake would be a serious event, but in a nation like Haiti, the poorest country in the western hemisphere, the level of destruction is almost unimaginable! That the quake’s epicentre was only 15km from the densely populated capital, Port-au-Prince, has only exacerbated the situation.
Many of the city’s buildings were poorly constructed leaving them especially vulnerable to the quake, and it appears that many of those killed or injured were indoors at the time of the quake, or close to buildings which collapsed. Even so the death toll is staggering. So far it’s reckoned that 50,000 have died although there are fears that this could rise to as much as 500,000. Half a million people, it’s a simply stunning figure!

In many ways though the quake was only the beginning of the disaster, and looking after the survivors is now the main priority. Many Haitians live on less than a dollar a day, & even in normal times the country is heavily reliant on foreign food aid, but providing clean water, food & shelter for the thousands of, now homeless, survivors is going to be a huge task. Also, with so many dead to recover from the rubble, there’s a massive risk of disease.
Offers of aid and support have been flooding in pretty much since the quake struck, but even so, given the Herculean scale of the task, more help is needed. Most major charities have started appeals, for example Oxfam’s Haiti Earthquake donation page.

To try and stem the fears of a new global financial crisis becoming a reality, the UAE’s central bank has announced the implementation of a fund to provide extra liquidity to both UAE based banks, & foreign banks which operate in the country; a move which appears to have calmed the fears of the financial markets somewhat, at least based on the performance of the Asian markets today.

Closer to home Dubai’s financial woes are cause for concern for a number of UK banks, including HSBC, RBS, Barclays & Lloyds, who viewed the Emirate as a safe financial bet & invested heavily; RBS is the biggest underwriter of Dubai Worlds’ loans, so nervous times in Gogarburn no doubt. Whether they’ll be covered by the UAE Central Bank’s bail out fund, and if so, to what extent, is unclear at the moment, but these must be worrying times for a few big wigs in the British financial sector. (Unless, of course, they’re expecting that they’ll just get bailed out by the British tax payer, again.)

Flight from Dubai?

Still, in the longer term, the decision by the Dubai Govt not to back Dubai World’s debts may come back to haunt them. Although they insist that the company has always been a seperate entity, many investors assumed that, because it’s state run, it would be bailed out by Govt if there were any problems. Many investors may feel that they’ve been mislead, and, if so, it could make it significantly more difficult for Dubai to attract investors in future; at the very least future investors will want to know exactly what terms they’re lending on.

Well, the above was written yesterday, but it seems the story has moved on overnight, so no need to cancel your flights to Dubai just yet!
Dubai world is now in talks with its creditors and is seeking to restructure just £26bn of its total (£59bn) liabilities. Although that still sounds like a huge sum to the average person, apparently the move has greatly calmed fears in the banking world. I guess it sends signals that the company isn’t on the verge of collapse, and with the economic system being so reliant on the confidence, it might be enough to prevent Dubai Worlds’ problems spreading & precipitating another dip in the world’s, still recovering, financial markets.

As always though the devil is well and truly in the details. We certainly need the US, along with China, to sign up to any deal that is reached for it to actually have any meaning; without the participation of the world’s two most polluting nations any climate change agreement that is reached is just so much hot air, as we saw with Kyoto.
As of yet China’s president, Hu Jintao, hasn’t made any committment one way or the other as to whether he’ll attend Copenhagen, so even with Obama’s attendance at this stage there are no guarentees that anything substantive or meaningful will come out of Copenhagen. Still, at least one of the big two polluters appears to be prepared to start taking action, undoubtedly a step forward in the battle to mitigate the impact of climate change before it’s too late.

Unfortunately, although Obama seems genuinely committed to taking action on the issue, how much he’ll be able to achieve is another question entirely. Generally Americans are far less concerned about the threat of climate change than he is. Currently the US has a Climate Bill in front of Congress, which aims for a 20% reduction in US CO₂ emissions by 2020. However it’s taking 2005 as it’s base level, whereas Europe and many other countrys are setting their reduction targets based on 1990 emisson levels. Even then it’s looking like Obama’s going to have to reduce his preposed target from 20% in order to get the necessary support to pass the bill through Congress; hence why he’ll only be pledging a 17% cut, by 2020, when he attends Copenhagen.
It also has to be noted that currently he’s only planning to attend the summit for one day, before heading off to Oslo to accept his Nobel Prize, and won’t be returning to Copenhagen for the crucial final days of the summit, when any agreement will be hammered out.

Overall it has to be seen as a positive step, that a US President is finally engaging in the fight to tackle the effects of Climate Change, but it also has to be remembered that he ultimately serves his electorate, and so, even if Obama is on-board with the struggle to reduce the effects of climate change it’s quite clear that his hands will, to an extent, be tied until he’s able to convince more of the US population that climate change is everybody’s problem!

However, I really have to wonder about the timing of the move. Ok, it looks like the economic slump may be coming to an end but even so it seems to me like quite a risky move. In the fairness M&S have said that opening the store is a “toe in the water”, to test the Spanish market, but is now really the time for such experiments? On one hand, the recent low prices in the Spanish property market have to be a good reason to make such a move now, you would think it’s certainly got to decrease the start up costs, and if Spanish property does start regaining its value, as some are suggesting is the case, then picking a store up now may even be a shrewd investment!
Still, if M&S’s target audience for the new store is Brits abroad, (it seems like a fair guess) then the timing starts to look a little more questionable to me. Britain’s slow recovery from recession means that many Brits are still going to be watching the pennies and avoiding foreign holidays, a factor likely to be exacerbated by the current poor Pound:Euro exchange rate, & reflected by the 15% drop in British visitors which Spain has experienced over the past year. What makes the move stranger is that this isn’t the first time that M&S have opened stores in Spain, the previous venture ended in the sale of the nine stores when they failed to make a profit. Still, the thinkers at M&S have no doubt considered all of this, and are presumably willing to accept a loss in the short term.

I suppose a big question is whether they’ll extend their recent move to stock non-M&S branded goods to the new store? Are we to be treated to M&S Marbella car hire? lol

''Press 2 if the dog ate your homework...'' Yes, now mobile phones can even provide pay-as-you-go English lessons!

However the move to offer English lessons, via mobile phone, to a whole nation has to get cudos for its originality & ambition, and it’s just what the Bangladeshi organisation BBC Janala aims to do. By getting the Bangladeshi Govt on board, as well as the country’s six major mobile networks, BBC Janala has been able to offer hundreds of 3 minute English lessons for only 4p each; Very cheap you might think, and probably not too expensive even by Bangladeshi standards, although one must bear in mind that the average Bangladeshi has to live on less than £2 a day.

The initiative is particularly significant because, while English remains a major international language of business, over the last few decades the quality of English teaching in the country has dropped noticably, which, along with the school systems high drop out rate, has lead to lower English fluency overall.
It would certainly appear that the service is being well received so far; it’s about two weeks since it launched and already it’s had over half a million calls, as well as ~1000 people signing up to the web site each day! So far things seem to be running smoothly, the only potential problem with the scheme that I can think of is people with pay as you go phones running out of credit half way through a lesson!

However, as the show progresses it would appear that it’s not all doom and gloom for the aviation industry. It seems that this year’s big winner will most likely be the military hardware sector, and it’s no surprise that companies which produce military aircraft are lining up to take part in the show, one consultancy recently estimated that Middle Eastern spending on military aircraft would top £100bn by 2014.
Amid all the clamour and competition it’s nice to see a British company, BAE, managing to grab it’s share of the sales. It would appear that so far they’re having a pretty good show, as part of the consortium which makes the Eurofighter Typhoon they’ll no doubt have been buoyed up by how much interest the jet fighter has generated from Gulf States during the airshow.

BAE have also generated quite a bit of buzz with the annoucement that their unmanned Mantis aircraft completed it’s maiden test flight recently. This is particularly significant since the Mantis is the first ever fully autonomous, twin-engined UAV. It hasn’t all been military hardware for BAE though, their Avro Business Jet has also proved popular; not only has it been selected by the governments of Bahrain, Abu Dhabi and Dubai as their VIP aircraft, it’s also won orders from the British firm Infinite Engineering Services.

Another big piece of news from the show is the annoucement by the UAE’s national carrier, Etihad, of a £750m investment package to enhance their operations across the board; no doubt they’ve got a few quid to splash around after all the flights to Dubai which they sold to those attending the airshow.

So, maybe the doom mongers are wrong; some sections of the civilian aviation industry might still be looking a little flat but overall it’s obviously far from penniless, and military spending never seems to go out of fashion. Overall it looks like the speculation that the Airshow would be a complete and utter flop may have been a little premature.

It also quite clearly reveals that the govts objections to cannabis and ectasy seem to come down to “drugs are illegal because they’re bad, and they’re bad because they’re illegal”. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying that these drugs are 100% harmless, but if an expert, whose job it is to know, is stating that they’re less harmful than substances which are legal and freely available then surely that has to be a pretty good arguement for their legalisation?
OK, you could take the opposite tack and say that maybe tobacco and alcohol should be made illegal instead, but apart from being a non-starter in terms of getting the populace to accept such a move, not to mention how much it would cost the exchequer in terms of lost duty, there comes a point where govt has to butt out and let people make their own choices (and take responsibility for them) even if there is some risk involved; Else we’ll eventually end up as a society of joyless wage slaves whose only purpose is to be good little workers. I mean, if you want to start talking about banning anything which is dangerous then lets start by looking at privately owned vehicles; how many deaths and injuries do they cause each year on our roads? By contrast we’re talking about cannabis & ectasy, susbstances which routinely kill less people each year than bed related misadventures!

There’s also the fact that history has shown that prohibition doesn’t work, where someone stands to make a profit you’ll just get a black market economy spring up to meet consumer demand for prohibited goods. As things stand in this country millions of otherwise perfectly law abiding, productive members of society are criminalised because they want, and choose, to smoke cannabis. If the govt truly represented the people they’d accept that for most users cannabis is a relatively benign substance with minimal knock on effects for wider society, and they’d legalise it.
Yes I said legalise it, forget decriminalisation, although it’s often touted as an acceptable method for govt to look the other way and quietly accept that maybe cannabis isn’t such an evil drug after all, decriminalisation is in fact the worst of both worlds from a societal point of view. Users are still forced to interact with the black market, organised criminals, in order to get the stuff, and this has a number of wider implications. It means that there aren’t any safe guards on quality, no product information in terms of the strength of any particular batch, and most importantly of all, money spent on cannabis is going to support organised crime!
On the other hand if it were legalised these issues could all be eliminated; users could be sure they knew what they were getting, and wouldn’t be funding criminals, but on the contrary could be providing revenue for govt.

At a time when we’re being told that, due to the banking bail out, our country is going to be in debt for decades to come you’d think that the govt might be open to new means of raising revenue. The Home Office estimates that in 2006 the UK drug trade was worth between £3.5 and £5.8 billion, not enough to solve the country’s money woes, but getting a slice of any figure which is measured in the billions isn’t to be sniffed at!

Really it seems like a no brainer to me. Now that “the genie’s out of the bottle” it’s never going away, people are going to take these drugs, they’ll find a way to get them because someone else can make money from supplying them. When even the experts are saying that dope is less harmful than substances which society already makes freely available, why can’t the govt just get over the outdated dogma that “drugs are bad m’kay” and do the thing which would benefit everbody except the organised criminals?

This piece in the New Scientist lays out the wider picture, in terms of the govt’s rocky relationship with it’s own Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs. There’s also a petition running on the No. 10 site here, if you want to join the call to re-instate Dr Nutt.